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What Are The Odds

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by Nyk, Feb 2, 2019.

  1. Nyk

    Nyk Motherflocker

    No words @Redwing. The odds of this occurring is astronomical.

    Screenshot_20190201-232844_AB Evolution.jpg Screenshot_20190201-233529_AB Evolution.jpg

    P.S. to everyone else, it's not a different Redwing.
     
    owtsaide likes this.
  2. Redwing

    Redwing Super Cool Bird

    It's me alright :). First few battles it was just me. I'm keeping track of how it populates and will post the results next week. It should provide some useful data to back up what we've said in the past about late entry. Probably should also send you a friend request :D
     
    Rando, Nyk and Epic Buttstomp like this.
  3. Redwing

    Redwing Super Cool Bird

    Just a brief update - at 3 hours, the league had increased to 11 players. At 6 hours - 37 players total, including myself and Nyk.
     
  4. Rando

    Rando Super Cool Bird

    Can you explain the arena a little more...i havegotten to legends 3 with 9k trophies...it's getting tough for me...no ss1 bird like chuck yet...having jimmy sucks
    The opponent always gets an advantage of one count less on the SS...and there's chuck almost always...:mad:
     
  5. Redwing

    Redwing Super Cool Bird

    Perserverence, and don't rush through the leagues. Unfortunately, there isn't much of a way to shorcut the grind. Take the time to level your birds. Once you get birds like Quaterback, Matilda, Carson and Chuck, things will get a little easier in your league. Also understanding how the pigs scale based on your team power helps to figure out where you are weak, and how you can manipulate things a little to your advantage.

    I will ask you to do a little experiment that might help you understand how the pigs scale in response to your team. Next scout PVP you find, before you even click that banner, change out all your birds to the lowest level garbage you have. Then click the banner. Take note of the other team's strength. Don't go to the fight yet. Instead, select the change teams button (the one on the left) and swap your team back to your current one. Now do the battle. Pay attention to the damage you, your opponent and the pigs do. The pigs in arena work much the same way. This is why you can't swap teams in arena. If you play around with this and your team composition, you'll eventually hit the sweet spot for consistent wins. Just remember, if you swap in a lower levelled bird, they can still push pigs over the line, without setting up your opponent for some easy kills, so they make good opening shots.
     
    Rando likes this.
  6. Rando

    Rando Super Cool Bird

    Thanks Redwing...i used this method in the scout arena battles before to get the easy win/key, i used to put 5 base 2 star birds and get an opponent worth 1k-2k as the AI chooses the opponent w.r.t our team health, and edit my team with the regular used birds..and in one move any one pig killed/damage would be game over...
    In arena, it is the trophies number that decides the opponent and hence did not realize how it would guage the pigs health increase before, thought it was the increase in trophies and league which determines it...
    Now with your's and Greg's explanation, understand both arena and scout battles better...

    Thanks a lot...:)
     
  7. Rando

    Rando Super Cool Bird

    Any suggestion on late entry?...keys used to my best way to get essences, now that is a little tough and have to take time to get a better team with good 1SS bird as you suggested...was a little aggressive in the past 2 weeks, took every arena battle, for that got 4k gems, now barely 4th, 5th in the ranking and also more battles lost
     
  8. Redwing

    Redwing Super Cool Bird

    Yeah, that's unfortunately the trap in the Arena. Good rewards, plus extra for beating your personal best tends to pressure you into trying to climb the league ladder quicker than your birds are appropriately levelled. They also don't tell you that the extra gems cap-out once you reach 15000 trophies and you don't get any more after that, no matter how much better your high score is over the last.
    As for late entry, Thursday or Friday seems to be the consensus. I find generally within 4 hours of the daily reset (whatever local time your daily tasks reset) on those days tends to get fairly easier run. Others here may have other times that achieve similar results. Of course, the thing to remember is not to get your expectations too high. If you want to stay in a league until your team is stronger, this means accepting any spot from 1st to 5th place. Keep in mind every week, there will be at least 3 people falling into the same trap, trying to climb the league ladder. You need to set a limit for yourself so you're not dragged out of the league before you're ready. I know it's hard to stick to, given how scarce Rovio has made resources.

    Last of all, keep watching this thread. We're lucky enough to have caught this just at the point where a fresh league was opened up, so hopefully at the end of the week, we might have a little more insight into how league and late-starting works :)
     
    Rando likes this.
  9. Redwing

    Redwing Super Cool Bird

    OK, a little late with the breakdown, but here it is.

    The league populated to 50 players within ~12hrs. As per usual, lots of pink rushing to get to the top 3. I'm not sure what the final figures were, but about an hour before end of league, all the top 3 were above 12750 trophies. Interestingly, one of Greg's clanmates ended up in the league, so we got confirmation that he was placed in our league when he started playing Arena for the week. This seems to be consistent enough with how Rovio claims league works - you get sorted into a league when you first play arena that week, and this process continues until the league is full. I did think that maybe there might be some server scrapes to combine incomplete leagues, but then I remembered this is Rovio, we're talking about.

    So, for those of you who play other online multiplayer games, you might notice that you might be able have a friend or many to play with (as long as you're in the same league rank), even if your game doesn't have a friends feature. The downside to trying to test this hypothesis is that you can't drop out of the match if you find yourself in a crowd of strangers ;) Still it would be interesting to see if it's possible to create essentially a private league for the week.

    The timeline, for those who are interested. All times in UTC -
    04:30
    Redwing - 11,058 trophies. Clan trophy bonus @ 29 trophies/match. Snapshot taken between 2nd and 3rd match.

    04:33
    Nyk joins. 11,031 trophies

    04:36,
    Player 3 - 10,957 trophies

    05:20
    Player 4. - 11,290;
    Player 5 - 11, 206;
    Player 6 - 11,000

    06:28
    Player7 -11,207;
    Player 8 - 11,029

    07:02 Player 9 - 11,186 (this was Greg's clanmate);
    Player 10 - 11,087

    07:05hrs
    Player 11 - 11,006

    07:20
    Player 12 - 11,120;
    Player 13 - 11,025

    08:43
    Player 14 - 10275;
    Player 15 - 11,026;
    Player 16 - 11,062;
    Player 17 - 11,062;
    Player 18 - 11,087;
    Player 19 - 11108;
    Player 20 - 11179;
    Player 21 - 11232;
    Player 22 - 11319.

    10:30
    Player 23 - 11638;
    Player 24 - 11526;
    Player 25 - 11357;
    Player 26 - 11207;
    Player 27 - 11168;
    Player 28 - 11116;
    Player 29 - 11090;

    11:26
    Player 30 - 11087;
    Player 31 - 11033;
    Player 32 - 11033;
    Player 33 - 11029;
    Player 34 - 11008;
    Player 35 -11003;
    Player 36 - 10975;
    Player 37 - 10975.

    12:13 PM
    Player 38 - 11087;
    Player 39- 11203

    17:00
    Player 40 -11,265;
    Player 41 -11211;
    Player 43 - 11203;
    Player 44 - 11149;
    Player 45 - 11090;
    Player 46 - 11087;
    Player 47 - 11087;
    Player 48 - 11087;
    Player 49 - 11033;
    Player 50- 11004.
     
    Nyk likes this.
  10. Nyk

    Nyk Motherflocker

    Thanks @Redwing for all this hard work. I think we now need to test what happens when 10+ players all press start at one time. It will tell us if it's one giant pool or multiples. Depending who participates we could also determine if it's server based or global for leagues.
     
    Last edited: Feb 8, 2019
  11. A. Wolf

    A. Wolf Motherflocker

    It always runs one new arena pool after another based on time entered
     
  12. Nyk

    Nyk Motherflocker

    How do you figure? It took 13 hours for 50 people to enter one league. If there's 500k people playing, I don't see how the statistics allow that. I'm not disagreeing with you, just trying to figure out your reasoning.

    I personally think that it's multiple pools that fill sequentially.
     
  13. A. Wolf

    A. Wolf Motherflocker

    Because you both started later in the week. Granted that was an unusually long stretch even for late in the week but i have been coordinating entering with other clan members at various times for 6+ months and not once have we not ended up in the same bracket/pool if we start in the same min or so (usually on a Mon). Almost without fail the farther away from the start time you go in, the longer it takes to fill your bracket. Some on the last day never even fill all the way up.
    Way more people start the first 2 days now that the arenas allow so few plays compared to the old style, back then it was a little more evenly spread out with start times.
     
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  14. Tigerangels42038

    Tigerangels42038 Motherflocker

    Wolfs right its one after the other, i started to keep an eye on it every week so none of mine and the boys accs land in the same league. Since i take a Monday & Tuesday off pvp there is less players starting, so whenever i started playing all of them would end up in the same league unless i spaced them out, now i watch until 1 get to 50 then, use the next one, wait until that reaches 50 and so on.
     
  15. ELLY

    ELLY Super Cool Bird

    C65E59D3-0AF9-40B5-A2C9-6592D33A487E.jpeg

    Guys, would it be better for me to go to Legend 1 League this week by passing 14k? Or would it be better to stay in the Legend 2 league?
     
  16. Tigerangels42038

    Tigerangels42038 Motherflocker

    Id stay in legends 2 for a while until you need to go to legends 1, the rewards are only slightly better in legends 1 but has a lot more competition for the top 5 spots
     
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  17. Magnuson

    Magnuson Super Cool Bird

    Am I understanding this correctly? You don't start with any arena pvp until Thursday or Friday of the week? How does that not put you way behind others in trophies/ranking?
     
  18. A. Wolf

    A. Wolf Motherflocker

    because, the arena works in successive brackets/pools of 50 players. They are filled in order of when players enter the first time. the longer you wait to go in however, the slower they tend to fill up.
    sooo, waiting until late in the week can indeed put you quite a few free plays behind the first players to enter/start the bracket you end up in. the trade off is that if you are too busy to play all week, you can just wait & still be somewhat competitive but of course you also earn was less keys by starting late.
     
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  19. Magnuson

    Magnuson Super Cool Bird

    I see. Interesting. Thank you for the explanation!
     
    A. Wolf likes this.
  20. Nyk

    Nyk Motherflocker

    As wolf said, it depends what's more important. If you value keys more, you need to start the league battles on Sunday after rollover. If you value gems/totems you want to wait until Thursday/Friday to battle. As with everything in this game it's about priorities. You can't have everything all the time.
     
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