fellow members, I really want to write this somewhat technical analysis about the probability in this game, the drop rate of 5* birds, premium tickets, etc, in hoping that those who read this would be a lot happier & less frustrated about the game. There are a lot of players complains about not getting 5* birds in event, when I read the posts, I get the feeling that there is an expectation: the more eggs I hatch, the higher chance I get to have a 5* bird, so not getting it after so many hatches means the game is rigged. That is an incorrect expectation! This is how probability works: let's say you flip a coin, it is 50% chance getting heads/tiles, but you have to flip 10000 times or more, in fact, well over 1 million times, to reach the perfect 50/50 ratio. It is very common to get 6-7 times of one side consecutively, and if you do it 100 times, you may end up with 70-30, 60-40, etc. Now, this is @ 50%, getting a 5 * bird is less than 1%( for argument purpose, you may replace this with higher %), even @ 10x multiple it is less than 10%! And most importantly, each hatch is INDEPENDENT of the last hatch! There is a 90% chance of not getting a 5* bird every hatch @ 10x multiplier EVERYTIME! That is still very high, so now you see how you could still hatch 40-50 eggs after 10x & still get nothing. Now comes the important part: Luck. What is your luck? Are you winning the lotto & gambling on a regular basis? Do you consider yourself a lucky person? I use HeroBirds as an example ( I hope you don't mind herobird, you are just too lucky for me not to quote you!) he gets 3 chuck all in less than 5x multiplier, he got 6 5* birds in a 10x hatch (hope I got the stats right) that is extremely lucky, so if he ever post saying he didn't get event birds after 100 hatches, I'd be thinking may be there is something wrong with the algorithm of the game, otherwise i think everything is OK. Managing expectations: here is the records of hatches before getting a 5* birds for me, I got nothing before the red event, then: RED (20 odd), RED(30 odd). Freedom (34) , Thrash (17), Geraldine(70 odd), Geraldine (40-50, while I was trying for Chuck) ; Chuck (71). So, as you can see, I am not very lucky, if I don't have enough gems to do 70 hatches I may not get a bird. So, that's my expectations (well, actually my expectations is around 30-40). The same goes for dropping premium chest/tickets. So, I am not frustrated (although disappointed) every time I didn't get something, but very happy when I do get something, and that makes me want to play this game more so that I do get something after the hard work. I hope all that did manage to finish reading my post feels a lot calmer about the game and be not so 'angry' playing evolution. Happy gaming all!