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Probability & luck, how it affect the game - managing expectations

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by Onlong, Jul 14, 2017.

  1. Onlong

    Onlong Super Cool Bird

    :eek:fellow members, I really want to write this somewhat technical analysis about the probability in this game, the drop rate of 5* birds, premium tickets, etc, in hoping that those who read this would be a lot happier & less frustrated about the game.

    There are a lot of players complains about not getting 5* birds in event, when I read the posts, I get the feeling that there is an expectation: the more eggs I hatch, the higher chance I get to have a 5* bird, so not getting it after so many hatches means the game is rigged. That is an incorrect expectation!

    This is how probability works: let's say you flip a coin, it is 50% chance getting heads/tiles, but you have to flip 10000 times or more, in fact, well over 1 million times, to reach the perfect 50/50 ratio. It is very common to get 6-7 times of one side consecutively, and if you do it 100 times, you may end up with 70-30, 60-40, etc. Now, this is @ 50%, getting a 5 * bird is less than 1%( for argument purpose, you may replace this with higher %), even @ 10x multiple it is less than 10%! And most importantly, each hatch is INDEPENDENT of the last hatch! There is a 90% chance of not getting a 5* bird every hatch @ 10x multiplier EVERYTIME! That is still very high, so now you see how you could still hatch 40-50 eggs after 10x & still get nothing.

    Now comes the important part: Luck. What is your luck? Are you winning the lotto & gambling on a regular basis? Do you consider yourself a lucky person? I use HeroBirds as an example ( I hope you don't mind herobird, you are just too lucky for me not to quote you!:D) he gets 3 chuck all in less than 5x multiplier, he got 6 5* birds in a 10x hatch (hope I got the stats right) that is extremely lucky, so if he ever post saying he didn't get event birds after 100 hatches, I'd be thinking may be there is something wrong with the algorithm of the game, otherwise i think everything is OK.

    Managing expectations: here is the records of hatches before getting a 5* birds for me, I got nothing before the red event, then: RED (20 odd), RED(30 odd). Freedom (34) , Thrash (17), Geraldine(70 odd), Geraldine (40-50, while I was trying for Chuck) ; Chuck (71). So, as you can see, I am not very lucky, if I don't have enough gems to do 70 hatches I may not get a bird. So, that's my expectations (well, actually my expectations is around 30-40). The same goes for dropping premium chest/tickets. So, I am not frustrated (although disappointed) every time I didn't get something, but very happy when I do get something, and that makes me want to play this game more so that I do get something after the hard work.

    I hope all that did manage to finish reading my post feels a lot calmer about the game and be not so 'angry' playing evolution. Happy gaming all!
    Riedgu, SquawkTron, Vexim and 9 others like this.
  2. RyogaDyana

    RyogaDyana Super Cool Bird

    very well said~ this is the mentality that we should have with RNG loot gaming.
    TurtleMafia and Nana like this.
  3. Druny

    Druny Hatchling

    Spot on post
    Frustrating game because of difficulty getting a 5 star or event bird to drop
    But very fun game to play
    To really enjoy you need to be patient and willing to grind it out
    5 stars do come, never thought I'd get one but after plugging along with very little luck initially I now have 2(chuck and blitz)
    RyogaDyana, TurtleMafia and Nana like this.
  4. Nana

    Nana Super Cool Bird

    Thumbs up to this thread! It's a game and it's supposed to be fun *imo at least* ... I've been playing since the RED event and have yet to hatch an event bird (steals some of Herobirds luck!):oops: ... but I'm enjoying the game and have snagged a few good birds. Now, if only Rovio would stop hiding my pyramid frags in bird town behind the huge birds hanging out there.......lol:rolleyes:
    TurtleMafia likes this.
  5. Onlong

    Onlong Super Cool Bird

    Haha, yeh, I hate it when it hides behind the sale sign. It's almost impossible to pick it up, you need to move around a bit to get into that corner!
  6. Nana

    Nana Super Cool Bird

    Yea....they hid it there too lol, sneaky !
  7. Pajarito_rico

    Pajarito_rico Hatchling

    If the probability is 1% , how is possible see players get 3 Chucks with a few golden tickets , while others spent hundreds of dollars to get none. If you spent money or time something of value should be given back, if not, there is not motivation to continue playing.
    Keimpe1983 likes this.
  8. RyogaDyana

    RyogaDyana Super Cool Bird

    with RGN anything can happen, even with 1% probability, the chance of getting 3 chucks consecutively with 3 single tickets is 0.0001%, close to 0 but still not equal to zero, so it is still possible.
  9. Onlong

    Onlong Super Cool Bird

    Exactly the point that many still doesn't get. Guess math & probability is not a subject everyone enjoyed while at school.:D
    RyogaDyana likes this.
  10. Donnie G

    Donnie G Tiny Birdy

    Just because you spend money doesn't mean you're owed anything, you just have more chances to get lucky. If that were the case you'd just be able to buy the bird flat out but tell me; how fun would that be? If there weren't losers there wouldn't be winners but you can't win if you don't play. You'll get a good one eventually and wonder why you were ever upset lol
    Nana, TurtleMafia and RyogaDyana like this.
  11. Terrence

    Terrence Super Cool Bird

    There are things that money just can't buy...PERIOD. As @Onlong had put it, manage your expectations and learn how to enjoy the game. If u get upset over playing a game, u are better off not playing it.
  12. Onlong

    Onlong Super Cool Bird

    My friend just used over 90 eggs, nothing. So he just concentrated on his group of 4 stars, and wait for the next event. That's just luck, some days you win, some days you don't.
  13. RyogaDyana

    RyogaDyana Super Cool Bird

    why so fast gave up, the event is still more than 1 day, he can still get premium tickets (10x is also possible if he is lucky) and claim the 10 tickets reward if he somehow manage to collect 250 event items (quite do-able for free to play players imo, you have to play hard and use most of your scouts, but sacrifice your sleep and wake up every 2 hours is not necessary)
  14. Onlong

    Onlong Super Cool Bird

    At a certain point you should cut your losses & move on. As the Luck is no there, another 10 may be at lost anyway. Saving for the next event may be wiser. Just like gambling, you have to stop before point of no return. Anyway, I would do the same, when I got Geraldine, I got it on the ticket when I decided that was the last one, would not spend one more either way.
  15. RyogaDyana

    RyogaDyana Super Cool Bird

    but.. since he used more than 90 eggs, I suppose he is on 10x multiplier now? and that alone is a good reason not to cut loss now, it is already "point of no return", also considering chuck is a much better event bird than most of the rest
    TurtleMafia likes this.
  16. Onlong

    Onlong Super Cool Bird

    As I analyzed about the probability, if he is not having any luck at the moment, he could still Lise those 10 tickets without getting CHUCK, you may heard of stories of people losing every thing from gambling, same concept, you think one more might just get you the bird, but not really, as the luck is not there, so you end up spending 110 eggs & nothing, like that other player posted. If you cut your losses & move on, in the next event you may be in luck to get it easily. Anyone playing this should stick to a rule, set a goal(I.e, how many eggs before giving up) don't pass that goal, that is the most sensible way to look at the probability game.
  17. RyogaDyana

    RyogaDyana Super Cool Bird

    Don't know how to explain, but I couldn't agree with any of your points here. I will try however....
    there is only chance / possibility involved before it actually happens, and after it happens, only you call it as luck (good or bad), there is nothing predetermined if you are a possibility believer. Like professional gambling, it is just about possibility, you just don't bet against the odds, instead of relies on luck, insisting you are going to win / lose because of your luck. in short, luck is not predetermined.
  18. Onlong

    Onlong Super Cool Bird

    Ok, let's put luck aside, it's just a matter playing by a set of predefined rules. Like if you invest in share market, once you reach a threshold, you cut your losses and move on. After so many eggs, you either believe that the next one will be it and continues, or cut you losses and stop hatching. It's just a choice, the result can be bad or good, you never know, and you may choice to find out or chose not to proceed. There is no right or wrong choice.

    For the people who believe in luck, they may choose to stop. For those don't believe in luck, they may choose to proceed until they run out of ticket or win Chuck.
  19. RyogaDyana

    RyogaDyana Super Cool Bird

    alright~ I understand that everyone has their own play style and I respect that :) just by the way since you mentioned share market, just to let you know, I am an investor too~ but I play the other way too, I buy and hold, unless there is changes in fundamental of my stock then only I would decide to sell it or not, cut lose is not part of my strategy
  20. Desert Song

    Desert Song Super Cool Bird

    In other words, this game rewards luck, not hard work. Maybe time to find a better game. Like Roulette.

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