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Number of tickets needed for event bird

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by PolliSoft, Sep 12, 2018.

  1. PolliSoft

    PolliSoft Hatchling

    As the title says, I'm interested in the average number of tickets you need to spend in order to get the event bird.
    I did some numerical analysis based on the rules of the event.
    The attached graph shows just this, but even more. What it shows is the number of tickets you on average need to spend to get the event bird, based on that you already spent x number of tickets without any luck.

    So, for x=0, you can see that the average number of tickets you need to spend is a bit more than 50, or x10/x11 as shown in the hatching hut.
    If you spent around 100 tickets without any luck, to can see in the graph that you on average need to spend around 18 more.
    For me, it's interesting to see this graph. I vote that you can get some use of it as well...

    And sorry for the Swedish, maybe I'll create an English version as well. _20180912_205931.JPG
     
  2. Clown Von Shoes

    Clown Von Shoes Tiny Birdy

    7x to 12x chances seems to be my normal. First time ever today I got the event bird with my 3rd silver ticket and another 4 later. There has been times I got to 16x and not got the bird before I ran out of chances.

    I think it’s inversely proportionate to how bad you want the bird the chance you will get it. :)
     
  3. A. Wolf

    A. Wolf Motherflocker

    My AVERAGE has been about 12x which is roughly 60-65 silvers.
    Almost without fail though the New Birds take more like 20x+ while the core birds & established ones (like lady bacon last week) tend to be more like 9x for me...
     
  4. RemixFTW

    RemixFTW Moderator

  5. PolliSoft

    PolliSoft Hatchling

  6. A. Wolf

    A. Wolf Motherflocker

    There is just no way those percentages are what they are actually being implementing in the game though.
    135 puts you at 27x & I have been past 27x or into the 30s five times in this game. So, if each of those times I was at a 99% chance for lets say 20+ hatches, you can see how implausible that is odds wise...
     
  7. Nyk

    Nyk Super Cool Bird

    Since we are pondering limits, how many anger totems and rage totems can be stored?
     
  8. A. Wolf

    A. Wolf Motherflocker

    50 & 30.

    Overflow goes into inbox with varying length of availability.
     
  9. PolliSoft

    PolliSoft Hatchling

    This is the fun things about mathematical statistics. With this kind of lottery, there is no history. I.e. if you draw x number of non-winning tickets, the outcome of your next ticket doesn't depend on the past.
    To say that you for every hatch have 99% chance of getting the event bird is to interpret it wrong. The table only states the average before you hatch any tickets. My graph shows the average after hatching x number of tickets without any luck.
    So, based on what I see (I've also been in the top x20's a number of times) the statistics hold up.
     
    Last edited: Sep 13, 2018
  10. A. Wolf

    A. Wolf Motherflocker

    I do understand the concept of the odds...
    I just dont believe the odds that Rovio states are correct. They have proven multiple times that they dont even remotely understand basic math & they lie constantly.
     
  11. Cowboysfan

    Cowboysfan Tiny Birdy

    My average is x4
     
  12. Mr. Anderson

    Mr. Anderson Tiny Birdy

    Well.. you must have all the birds then at that rate. Congrats.
     
    Cowboysfan likes this.
  13. A. Wolf

    A. Wolf Motherflocker

    Yeah, that insane odds if its true.
     
    Cowboysfan likes this.
  14. Mr. Anderson

    Mr. Anderson Tiny Birdy

    "if its true"
     
  15. Cowboysfan

    Cowboysfan Tiny Birdy

    It is true
     

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