This is the fun things about mathematical statistics. With this kind of lottery, there is no history. I.e. if you draw x number of non-winning tickets, the outcome of your next ticket doesn't depend on the past.

To say that you for every hatch have 99% chance of getting the event bird is to interpret it wrong. The table only states the average before you hatch any tickets. My graph shows the average after hatching x number of tickets without any luck.

So, based on what I see (I've also been in the top x20's a number of times) the statistics hold up.

Last edited: Sep 13, 2018