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Chart: Odds of reaching event multiplier X

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by ADBjester, Mar 3, 2018.

  1. ADBjester

    ADBjester Tiny Birdy

    Hello All,

    I see constant complaints. "I got to 15x and didn't get the event bird." "Yeah? Poor you, I'm at 24x and still nothing. It has to be rigged."

    It's not rigged.

    Just what do you think the odds are of making it to a given multiplier without getting the event bird? Luckily, that number is easily calculable using rudimentary probability math.

    First, you have to know how to calculate your CUMULATIVE odds. In the spreadsheet below (a condensed version of one that has every row in it), these are the columns:

    Column B: The exact odds of this one hatch, without regard to past history. 1x is 1 in 400, so 0.25%. 3x is 1 in 134 (column G), so it is 0.75%.
    Column C: The inverse of B. The exact odds that you will NOT get the bird this hatch. 1.00 - B. Just this hatch.
    Column D: The product of every value in Column C, from this row up to row 2. These are the cumulative odds that you'll get this far and catch no bird. e.g. to get past the 2th hatch, you have to get past the first hatch, too. It's only 99.75% that you will get past the first hatch, and 99.75% that you will get past the second. 99.75 x 99.75 = 99.50. Then to get past the third hatch, you have to have gotten past the 1st AND second hatch as well as the third, 99.75 * 99.75 * 99.75, and so on.
    Column E: The inverse of Column D. The cumulative odds that you'll have hatched the event bird by now. THIS IS THE VALUE WE WANT TO EXAMINE.

    So, you say you're at 15x. What are the odds of that? Well, row 15 says that after hatch 70, you'll be leaving 14x for 15x, and you have a 72% chance of having caught the bird. That's still 27% or better than one event in four, where you won't get the bird by this point.

    You can read the same from any row.

    You're at 24x? You unlucky soul. After finishing 23x, you've hatched 115 eggs and there's barely a 3% chance that you've made it this far. Still, 3 in 100 players will get there without getting the bird (on average).

    As you can see, your odds approach certainty as you get up there in hatches, and each hatch is more likely to pay off.... but even 29x is going to happen to one in 200 players.... and there are more than 200 of us by far. Those that it happens to are going to be the ones that complain.... just like those few 12% who get it within 15 hatches (before 4x) are also going to crow about it.

    There's nothing nefarious, and it isn't fixed or rigged at all. It's simple math. It is *supposed* to be hard to get these birds, and I think Rovio's system here is pretty fair.

    Jester

    ABE-Multiplier-Odds.JPG
     
    Riedgu, RemixFTW and Tigerangels42038 like this.
  2. ADBjester

    ADBjester Tiny Birdy

  3. Lotusroot

    Lotusroot Hatchling

    I think the problem is how much variance there is in hatching, it feels great to hatch an event bird under 10x multiplier, but when u go above 20x and certainly those who go to 30x and still do not get the event bird its very discouraging and id assume people do stop playing after they get that unlucky.
    In my opinion a solution to this would be to put a hard cap on how high the multiplier can go, say 30x or even 25x to reduce the variance a little. Its supposed to be "hard" to get event birds but when your clan mates brag about getting an event bird at 3x chance and you just spent a lot of money and got nothing at 30x, you really don't want to play the game at all anymore.
     
  4. A. Wolf

    A. Wolf Super Cool Bird

    Yeah, I just got Bomb on 4x because I had to use a few silver tickets this week as I was maxed out coming into the event. I did not want him but whatever...

    Too bad we cant do something else with unwanted 5* birds besides sell them or feed them to others. Trading them in for a bird you want would be cool. Even if it took 4 or 5 birds to trade for one you actually want that wouldn't be so bad.

    Also, they could have an event or option where you can actually pick what bird you want to go after (it would not have to me a multiplier event either)... That would make Rovio some $$ and players wouldn't mind paying a little.
     
    evo egg likes this.
  5. Funperson

    Funperson Tiny Birdy

    I got Bomb at 6x. Had to use tickets so i wouldn't max out. Banner was at 5x when I started and only used 8 tickets.
     
  6. RemixFTW

    RemixFTW Forum Mod

    I saw a suggestion to make a guaranteed event bird at a 25x multiplier. All though reaching 25x may take a lot of gems, it could be useful for unlucky but rich people when a event like Chuck or QB comes up.
     
  7. Riedgu

    Riedgu Guest

    Support replied that it's all good and suggestion to give bird at specific multiplier is not an option. Even if person reaches 30x - it is all fair, because there is a chance game and everything is accordint to the plan. They see no problem (at least support wrote to me like that)

    And as poster said - it's quite fair. I myself got to x28 and x33, but I wouldn't want everyone to get event birds. It is their fualt that they spend more on game than they should. Whn I could - I spent 8 euros and I am not willing to spend more. Nothing wrong with it
     
  8. Agentjoseph

    Agentjoseph Tiny Birdy

    simply put it’s gambling. You win Some you lose Some
     
  9. Witkacy [PL]

    Witkacy [PL] Super Cool Bird

    Wolf :)

    I am NOT very fond of trading idea, I am afraid... And now tell you why just the same words as I did once at our Clan's chat:
    ''But... I am afraid it could be BORING sooner or later, as you not getting the birds you need and missing, you simply ''buy'' from those who having some spares, and if you have some spares as well - could give those to peps who don't... In the short time everyone would be having ALL birds possible - no reason to play anymore, unless having plenty of time to waste and not wishing to find any other (more useful) entertainment ;)''

    Cheers,
    W
     
    Riedgu likes this.
  10. A. Wolf

    A. Wolf Super Cool Bird

    I did not al all mean to trade them with other players.
    Rather to essentially buy a 5* bird you want (within the game) with 4 or 5 of your unwanted 5* birds. I know this idea would never be implemented but they really need to think about radical changes if they want to save the game.

    I just find it extremely frustrating to have Geraldine, Murphy, 2 Bomb & 2 Cyril that I will never use for anything. The current sale value of them is just ridiculously low compared to the ticket value it took to acquire them especially in contrast to lower * birds. I mean 50 gold, really? The selling value could at least be similarly multiplied the way a chance of acquisition is...
     
  11. Riedgu

    Riedgu Guest

    I saw a video about Geraldine. Try to throw her undies not to the pigs but to the fans. And look at the damage to the pigs
     
  12. Witkacy [PL]

    Witkacy [PL] Super Cool Bird

    Wolf :)

    That's OK - see where you come from - but still - NO CHANCE to be done for just simply exchanging the ''unwanted'' ones to the one you desire just like that and Rovio not earning hard cash of peps buying LOT of tickets and diamonds (I imagine) to CHASE the birds they would like to be having...

    As for the birds - I have to say that I've never had such problems with birds I DO NOT WANT... When I have got ANY 5* bird - all the time very pleased... Even if not using some in my core PvP team - always try to find the purpose of every each of them and use them at the dungeons for example... So far I have got 18 5* birds: 5 blue; 4 yellow; 3 each - red, white and black... So for now only blue team is made of 5* birds... When it would happen someday that I will be having all teams of 5* - still would wait for any 5* birds - because they ARE RARE... Will get better, fine - replace the ''worse'' one, but never be complaining that I have birds I have no idea how and for what for to use...

    Cheers,

    W
     
  13. A. Wolf

    A. Wolf Super Cool Bird

    Its not that I don't know how to use them, I just know that I will NEVER need to use them because I have better birds in their color already. I have teams for their color dungeons that are already well past the required 17500 max. So no other need for using inventory slots to hang on to extra birds that have such low sale value compared to their relative rarity...

    I actually think my trade in idea would net Rovio more $$ as people would have to grind hard or spend to acquire the 4 or 5 birds to trade in for 1 that they want.
     
  14. Tigerangels42038

    Tigerangels42038 Super Cool Bird

    Yeah thats the way her supershot used to work, its been broke for ages now, the fans no longer "run amok" like they are suppose to. Havent fixed it in the update either
     
  15. RemixFTW

    RemixFTW Forum Mod

    Do you have a version for regular 5* birds during a event.
     
  16. Riedgu

    Riedgu Guest

    During event you get a muliplier, so you see the odds in each row. In this sheet it is not included chances when you hatch through 10x, because only golden tickets increase the chances, not events.

    But basically the spreadsheet tells the picture how unfortunate you have to be to reach 44x.
     
  17. RemixFTW

    RemixFTW Forum Mod

    I know. I’m just asking how unfortunate you need to be to reach 44x without getting a non-event 5*.
     
  18. Riedgu

    Riedgu Guest

    I suppose the rates remain the same - 1 in 220. So you need to do the math. In this chart its considered the increases chances. So with normal 5* it is a bit less chances than for event bird.

    But 44x is extra unlucky
     

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